Macroeconomic data influence the construction companies’ dynamics

 

Thus, the positive signals related to the possible resumption of an ascending trend in the near future are increasingly obvious even if certain macroeconomic data indicates that our country still faces negative effects of recession, particularly as regards the constructions sector. However, considering the GDP dynamics according to a quarterly comparison basis, if for the timeframe July - September 2011 it will be reported that the economic activity recorded a more considerable growth compared to the previous three months, there are all the premises that the foreign direct investments flow may resume at a level superior to that from the moment of maximum recession intensity, with the beneficial effects on the constructions market and related sectors. The information provided by INS is in line with the initial forecasts of most economic analysts (including those of the International Monetary Fund - IMF - and the Government), which estimated a real growth of approximately 1.5% of the GDP, corresponding to the current year. A similar release of the European Statistics Bureau - Eurostat - showed that the national economy overcame recession in the first quarter of 2011, after the 0.7% GDP growth in seasonally adjusted terms, as against the previous three months, when the growth reached 0.7%. Since then, the respective indicator recorded another growth and it is estimated that the resumption of recession is no longer possible, although the sovereign debt issue of many EU states (our country’s commercial partners) generated the application of austerity measures with a direct effect on the drop of consumption and reduction of the import/export activity. According to Eurostat, in the second quarter of 2010, Romania recorded an optimum economic growth, compared to the 19 EU member states (which reported statistic data comparable to the previous quarter), while France, Hungary and Portugal faced GDP stagnation. The 0.2% growth, similar to the advance recorded in Lithuania, Great Britain, Czech Republic and Spain, place Romania in a medium position among the states having recorded positive data in the second quarter. The highest increases were recorded in Leetonia (+2.2%), Estonia (+1.8%), Finland (+1.2%), Austria and Sweden (+1% each). With an only 0.1% growth, the German economy - sustaining most of the UE-27 structure - followed a trend that contradicted economic analysts’ expectations, while other states reporting a similar percentage were only represented by Bulgaria and the Netherlands. Considering the second quarter of 2010, Romania is still the only country with a minor GDP growth in the analyzed period (+0.3%, compared to the maximum level of +8.4% in Estonia or +1.9% in Bulgaria, closed to the UE-27 average), and Portugal recorded a -0.9% drop, higher than in the first quarter (-0.6%). The European Union economy (UE-27) recorded a 1.7% growth in the second quarter of 2011 as against the same timeframe of the previous year, respectively 0.2% compared to the first quarter of 2011, the same percentages being recorded in relation to the GDP in the euro zone. If we notice the series of non-seasonably adjusted data (comparing the situation from the last semester of 2010 as against 2009, respectively the first semester of this year, as against the 1st and 2nd quarters of last year), the document published by Eurostat shows that the European Union is no longer in recession, recording in each of the four quarters GDP growths between 1.7% and 2.2%. The respective information could represent a stimulus for big investment groups which - in 2010 - avoided the EU zone and chose to earmark funds to other economies, particularly those belonging to some Asian countries, Latin America countries etc. Due to the lack of data related to the second quarter of 2011, which was not communicated by the institutes of statistics from Denmark, Ireland, Greece, Luxemburg, Malta, Poland and Slovenia, the Eurostat specialists must review twice the current estimations (flash type), in September and October. On the other hand, the Eurostat bureau database has been updated with recent information related to the main European Union economic partners (USA and Japan). As for the USA, for the second quarter - on a sequential calculation basis - a +0.3% GDP growth was reported, after the +0.1% growth recorded in the previous three months, but Japan entered in recession, with successive drops of -0.9% and -0.3%. In terms of the annual comparison means, in the first quarter, the GDP growth in the USA was 2.2% and dropped in April - June 2011 down to +1.6%. The effects of the earthquake in Japan were drastic for the Nippon economy, negatively influencing capital markets and investors, so that the GDP contracted by -0.7% in January - March and by -0.9% in April - June, as against the same periods of last year.

National Bank of Romania (BNR) specialists have recently publicized the monthly report on the flow of foreign direct investments (FDI), as well as our country’s foreign debt, respectively payment balance for the first six months of this year. "Foreign direct investments in Romania dropped by 17.3% between January - June 2011, down to EUR 1,015 million (estimated data), from EUR 1,228 million in the first semester of the previous year. They covered to a share of almost 39% the current account deficit, which totalled EUR 2.601 billion in the reference timeframe. Out of the total FDI reported in the analyzed timeframe, intra-group credits (between the foreign investor and the resident company) totalled EUR 696 million, and capital participations (consolidated with the estimated net loss) amounted to EUR 319 million", as mentioned by the BNR experts. Central bank officials also show that the "payment balance current account deficit dropped by 28.6% as against the same timeframe of the previous year, mainly due to the trade balance deficit drop by 21.6% and the current transfers surplus growth by 63.2% (due to the public administration’s net transfers). At the same time, medium and long term foreign debt amounted on 30 June 2011, to EUR 75.665 million (77.9% of the total foreign debt), 4% higher than on 31 December 2010. Short-term foreign debt reached EUR 21,456 million (22.1% of the total), being 18.4% higher than the level recorded on 31 December 2010. The medium and long-term foreign debt service rate (calculated as the ratio between the medium and log term foreign debt service and the goods and service exports) was 21.5% between January - June 2011, as against 33.3% in 2010. The level of covering the reserve in months of imports (evinced as the ratio between the official BNR reserve of foreign currency and gold at the end of the period and the average monthly import of goods and services in the respective timeframe) was 8 months of imports of goods and services on 30 June 2011, as against 8.6 months on 31 December 2010".