Construction market - ranking fourth in terms of GDP share

 

"Professional, scientific and technical activities; administrative service activities and support service activities represented the economy branch with the highest activity volume growth, namely 6.1%, being followed by constructions, with 5.2% and entertainment, cultural and recreational activities; household appliances repairs and other services, with 3.8%. Other slight activity volume growths were also recorded by information and communication activities (+1.9%), real-estate transactions (+1.3%) and industry (+0.5%). Activity volume drops defined public administration and defence; public system social security; education; health and welfare (-1.9%), agriculture, forestry and fishing (-1.6%), financial mediations and insurances (-0.9%) and professional, scientific and technical activities; administrative service activities and retail and wholesale trade, vehicle and motorcycle repairs; transport and storage; hotels and restaurants (-0.2%). As a consequence of the optimum evolution recorded by the economy overall, we have noticed an increase of product taxes collected by the state budget, net taxes recording a 3.8% growth. In terms of the GDP use, in the second quarter of 2012, domestic demand grew by 0.9%, as against the same quarter of 2011, particularly due to the significant growth of the gross formation of fixed capital (+15.2%). At the same time, total final consumption grew by 1.1%, the latter being particularly influenced by the increase of expenditure volume for final household consumptions (+1.6%). However, expenditure for the final consumption of public administrations recorded a -1% drop. A slightly positive effect on the GDP was also that of the net export situation improvement, following the more accentuated growth of goods and services export volume (+0.7%) as against that of the imports volume (+0.2%)", as pointed out in an ISN release. As for the GDP estimated as gross series for the first semester of 2012, it amounted to RON 248,592.9 million current prices, 0.8% higher in real terms than the first semester of 2011. "The growth was considerably generated by the increase in the activity volume and consequently in the gross value added (GVA) for professional, scientific and technical activities; administrative activities and support service activities (+3.2%), constructions (+3.1%), entertainment, cultural and recreational activities; household appliances repairs and other services (+2.7%) and information and communication (+1.7%). Total final consumption grew by 0.7% in the 1st semester of 2012, as against the similar period of the previous year, particularly against the background of a 1.1% growth of household final consumption. The gross formation of fixed capital in its turn recorded a significant increase, by 14.1 percent", as also mentioned in the INS document. The new information announced by the Romanian Institute of Statistics exceeds the first flash forecasts related to the GDP evolution in the second quarter of 2012 and somehow modifies the data in the previous release, although for the GDP estimated for April - June 2012 (calculated according to the seasonally adjusted data), it no longer fully emphasizes the available information or comments for the usage part or the resource category part. On the contrary, for the gross series, it points out the achievements obtained by the construction sector for both reporting timeframes, thus allowing to perform pertinent analyses on this market’s contribution to the GDP. In this sense, it can be easily noticed that, although the construction work volume grew in the first semester at a quite moderated pace, the higher gross value added generates an increase in this sector’s economic importance. Basically, in the constructions sector, the second quarter of 2012 recorded RON 12,881.7 million current prices (gross series), the volume index growth as against the second quarter of 2011 reaching 100.5% (where 100% represents the previous, basic level), and the price index growth reached 105.7%. Thus, this sector ranks third in terms of achievements, after industry and trade. A similar situation also defines the timeframe January - June 2012, as construction branch achievements (still as gross series) totalled RON 19,681.7 million current prices, representing 100.2% as volume and 105.6% as price, compared to the first semester of 2011. However, the specific sector ranks fourth in terms of the economic value, after industry, trade and public administration/ defence.

Recently, through a release in September 2012, the National Institute of Statistics (INS) experts confirmed the sequential ascending trend of construction work volume in July 2012 only in terms of adjusted series, the gross series recording a drop, most likely due to the difficult political-economic situation faced by our country. However, if we analyze the main indicators for each component indicated by the INS, we acknowledge a relatively substantial market growth in the first seven months of 2012, both as adjusted series (in terms of the number of working days and the seasonal factor), and as gross series. Obviously, during the reference period, engineering construction works continued to be the most dynamic (to the detriment of other project categories), and updated information shows that construction sector companies overall are going through a period of loss recovery, as against the level recorded in January - July 2011, although market operators exclusively based on dwelling constructions have not yet reached the lowest possible activity - and implicitly revenue - level. However, the hypothesis according to which the current positive signals would be mainly generated by the seasonal factor (which allows a large scale development of construction projects) has been contradicted as - though construction work volume growth is a fact - the respective indicator is clearly negatively influenced by the political-social crisis with negative repercussions on the entire national economy, even if the expansion trends defining sector companies on a short/ medium term are still visible. Even upon a succinct analysis of all intrinsic and exogenous elements potentially able to modify the current sector situation, forecasts for the entire year are defined by uncertainty and inconsistency, as it is estimated that certain problems will be generated internally by the upcoming election period, which will definitely be marked by instability and unrest within the political class.