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ANALYSIS: Caution and uncertainty on the construction market, this year

The domestic construction market might return to an upward trend right from this year, given the 3.1% growth estimate made by the National Prognosis Commission (CNP) and the 0.5% increase forecast on the building materials segment made by the Association of Building Materials Producers from Romania (APMCR). However, the existence in the field of negative views related to the evolution in 2013 indicate, in fact, that the activity in this area will be further shaded by uncertainty and unpredictability. In this context, the operators have only one option, namely to be cautious in what concerns any business. The fact that the construction market lost 6 billion EUR between 2008-2012 (from 15.3 billion EUR to 9.3 billion EUR), at which over one billion EUR among manufacturers and suppliers of materials is added (from 4.5 billion EUR in 2008 to 3.3 billion EUR last year) must be taken into consideration at the elaboration of every strategy, even on the short term. The main concerns of the managers of specialized companies are still linked with the risks generated by the unpredictability of the market, the delays in the payment of claims, the blocking of funding for started projects and the stopping of new ones, facts which could unbalance once more a sector that has managed to stabilize during the past two years. An annual report on statistical bases - which should have a greater relevance - is, at this time, much more difficult to achieve, given the new methodology for quantifying the analyzed results published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS), which required the revision of some indicators. If we take into consideration the change of the reference period from 2005 to 2010, the latest statistics confirm the slightly upward trend of the local construction market, at least at a basic sequential reporting. Thus, INS reported a 5% increase in the volume of construction works in February 2013 compared to the previous month (as adjusted series), a development which was mainly due to the maintenance projects (+37.4%) and the ones of major repairs (+15.8%). New buildings have continued to be on a downward trend (-6.4%). However, on an annual reporting basis, the domestic construction market is still in technical recession. For further information and a detailed analysis of the current TOP-Agenda Constructiilor issue click here!
 
 

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